Natural Gas Price Forecast 2024-2030: What Will Gas Price Be in Next 5 Years?

Natural gas prices may have stabilized after a turbulent two years, partly brought on by Russia’s natural gas supply cuts to Europe after its invasion of Ukraine, in addition to a lack of renewable energy generation and an increase in energy consumption following COVID reopening.

Energy consumption was reduced by slowing economic activity as central banks increased interest rate hikes in an effort to combat excessive inflation. This helped to bring down energy costs, particularly those of natural gas, from their record high in 2022.

Midway through 2024, natural gas prices leveled out and remained at 80% below their all-time highs. Demand for heating was low at the beginning of the year due to mild weather and slow economic growth around the world. Chinese economic recovery following the end of its three-year COVID-19 limitations in late 2022 has been disappointing, adding fuel to the fire.

Natural gas prices still face upside risks due to the fact that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine are not going away anytime soon. Additionally, summer heat has become more extreme in many regions due to climate change, which could lead to a rise in the demand for cooling systems.

How much do you think natural gas will cost in 2024, 2025, and the years after that? Now, we’ll examine the natural gas forecasts made by industry experts for both the near and far future.

Gasoline Price Prediction Overview:

• Demand for natural gas is likely to be constrained by anticipated slow economic growth and limited room for production expansion.
• Due to low demand, natural gas prices are probably going to stay low.
• Natural gas prices may be positively impacted by the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
• Depending on US production levels and global unrest, there will be diverse trends in natural gas prices in 2025.

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What’s Affecting the Gas Price: Why is Gasoline Falling?

RBOB gasoline futures opened 2022 strong at the $2.25/gal level in early January and continued to surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.

On 8 March, the futures soared to a new all-time high of $3.83/gal after the US, the UK and the European Union announced a ban on Russian energy imports as a sanction for the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

The announcement caused the Brent crude oil benchmark, the largest component of the gasoline price, to hit $139 a barrel. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil cost 54% the price of a gallon of gasoline in October. Refining charges accounted for 22% of the fuel’s value, with taxes, distribution and marketing accounting for the remaining 24%.

“The gasoline price benchmark surge is driven by elevated crude oil prices and widening gasoline crack spreads on the back of diminishing refining capacity,” wrote Dominika Rzechorzek, an oil and gas analyst at Fitch Solutions.

“The most significant bullish factor currently impacting oil prices is the ongoing fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Prices have stayed elevated in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting supply disruptions stemming from the conflict itself, as well as Western sanctions in place on Russia.”

Crack spreads are the price differences between wholesale petroleum products and crude oil. They are frequently used to calculate refining margins. Gasoline crack spreads have grown to average $50.1/bbl in May-June 2022 from $17.2/bbl in 2021, driven by diminishing refining capacity, according to Rzechorzek.

On the demand side, gasoline demand increased sharply as Covid-19 restrictions were lifted and reached just above 2019 levels at 10.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) by June, according to ANZ Research’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes and commodity strategist Soni Kumari in a note on 3 November.

Natural Gas Price Forecast 2024

Although experts can only predict the future of some markets’ natural gas prices, they did predict a downward trend in 2024. Primary Vision Network’s Energy and Economic analyst Osama Rizvi told Techopedia that there is ample gas supply worldwide and that the global economy is still in a recession, therefore the likelihood of another surge in natural gas prices is low.

Nevertheless, Rizvi emphasized in his email response to Techopedia’s inquiry:

“We might witness a temporary surge in prices if there is further escalation in the Middle East or other regions.”

Japan spot LNG price was projected by ANZ Research to trade at $11.4/Mmbtu in 2024, down from $29.1/Mmbtu in 2023, according to their natural gas price projection.

David Hynes and Soni Kumari of ANZ Research stated in their July 18 note:

In 2024, it seems like supply and demand are about balanced. However, we continue to perceive price upside risks. Europe must not be complacent and must increase its purchases of LNG. An ever-increasing emphasis on energy efficiency and emissions in China could cause demand to surpass estimates.

They went on to say that supply disruption risks are still high, which should act as a floor for prices and, depending on how bad they are, might lead to further gains. For the Dutch TTF, the European hub, analysts have different expectations for the price of natural gas. According to the July 16 prediction by Dutch bank ING, Dutch TTF is predicted to trade at an average of €30/Mwh in 2024.

The European natural gas price index fell from €41.25/Mwh in 2023 to €40/Mwh in 2024, according to a note from BMI dated June 27. Despite an earlier prediction of $12/Mcf in March, Fitch Ratings downgraded the Dutch TTF natural gas pricing forecasts for 2024 to $10/Mcf in its most recent projection on June 17. The rating agency had projected it to be $13/Mcf in 2023, so it was lower than that as well.

Natural gas prices in Europe are predicted to reach €40/MMBtu in 2024, up from €35.2 in 2023, according to the most recent gas price estimate from ABN-Amro Bank, which was announced on 25 June. As of July 24, economic data source Trading Economics also predicted an increase trend in the price of European gas, with the fuel expected to trade at €36.72/Mwh in the third quarter of 2024 and €39.12 in the last quarter of the same year.

Market watchers in the United States are equally divided. As of June, Fitch Ratings’ 2024 Henry Hub natural gas price projection remained constant from March: $2.50/Mcf. Still, that was below the December projection of $3.25/Mcf and the $2.80 predicted for 2023.

After a downward revision from a prior projection in February, EIA now projects that Henry Hub’s price will average $2.50/MMBtu in 2024 in its July outlook. On the other hand, according to Trading Economics’ projections as of July 24th, US natural gas prices will rise in the last three quarters of 2024, with Q3 trading at $2.7031/MMBtu and Q4 at $2.8466/MMBtu.

In 2024, BMI predicted that Henry Hub will sell at $2.8/MMBtu, an increase from $2.66 in 2023, as part of the optimistic prediction.

Natural Gas Price Forecast 2025

Natural gas price predictions for 2025 were all over the map, with some experts predicting even lower prices. Many others are optimistic that fuel prices will go up again in 2019.

Without providing a detailed prediction on the price of natural gas, Rizvi of Primary Vision Network stated:

In 2025, the price of natural gas will stay relatively stable. The world’s supply will be ensured by a new wave of LNG.

The spot price of Japanese LNG, according to ANZ Research’s natural gas price projection for 2025, will reach $14.1/MMbtu, up from $11.4 in 2024.

Dutch financial institutions ING, ABN-Amro, and BMI all predicted a decline in Dutch TTF for European gas.

In its weekly report dated June 27, BMI predicted that European gas prices will average €38/Mwh in 2025, a decrease from €40 predicted for 2024.

On July 16, ING predicted that the Dutch TTF price will fall from €30 in 2024 to €29 per megawatt-hour in 2025. In 2025, ABN-Amro anticipates that the price of Dutch TTF will fall from €40/Mwh in 2024 to €35 to €40/Mwh.

At the same time, Fitch Ratings kept its 2024 prediction that European gas prices will remain stable at $10/Mcf in 2025.

In a note dated June 17, Fitch Ratings stated:

All of our TTF base-case assumptions have been preserved. Gas storage in the European Union is 68% full, and we anticipate that member states will have ample time to restock before the heating season begins, reducing the likelihood of price increases. Nevertheless, we expect prices to rise in the fall, as is typical for natural gas prices.

The Swiss Federal Office of Energy reported that the European Union’s gas storage capacity was 83.4% full as of July 24. Gas prices in Europe were expected to stay high in 2025, according to Trading Economics. Quarter 2 of 2025 had a natural gas price increase from Q1’s average of €41.69/Mwh to Q2’s average of €44.42/Mwh, according to the data provider.

Fitch Ratings predicted that Henry Hub will trade at $3/Mcf in 2025, up from $2.5/Mcf in 2024, reflecting an upward trend in US natural gas pricing going forward. “Gas output in the US still exceeds consumption, albeit the disparity has shrunk. We anticipate a decrease in production due to the stated curtailments. Fitch Ratings noted on June 17 that weather has a significant impact on natural gas pricing, especially in the near term.

After estimating $2.94/MMBtu in February, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its 2025 US natural gas price forecast to $3.30 in July.

Natural Gas Price Forecast for 2026-2030

Oil prices are expected to continue falling after 2025, according to analysts.

ING predicted that in 2026, the price of gas in Europe will drop from €29 in 2025 to €28 per megawatt-hour.

According to Fitch Ratings, the Dutch TTF price is expected to drop to $8/Mcf in 2026, $7 in 2027, and $5/Mcf in the middle of the cycle. Henry Hub price was predicted by the rating agency to stay at $3/Mcf in 2026 from 2025, then drop to $2.75 in 2027. Forecasts indicated that $2.75/Mcf would be the mid-term stable price for Henry Hub.

New LNG production capacity from Qatar and the United States was blamed by Fitch Ratings for the fall in natural gas prices.

Because of all the variables involved, long-term predictions of natural gas prices are difficult. As a result, there is currently no way to reliably predict the price of natural gas in 2030.

The demand for renewable energy and coal, two additional fossil fuels, affects the consumption of natural gas.

China was one of several nations that had promised to eliminate coal use in the near future in order to meet its net-zero emission goals before the conflict in Ukraine broke out. Nevertheless, nations like China and Europe increased their coal consumption in 2022 due to the skyrocketing prices of natural gas.

Emerging markets in Asia will expand their imports of LNG due to natural gas’s growing importance in assisting the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, according to BMI. Over the next decade, the firm predicts that developed market imports of LNG would rise by 3.6% to 7 billion cubic meters, while emerging markets in Asia will see a 73% increase, reaching 118 billion cubic meters.

MI penned:

Natural gas is seen as a bridging fuel in Asia’s current energy transition, making the region relatively unique. The region’s governments are pushing for gas to play a larger part in their energy mixes, replacing coal in the power sector, oil in petrochemical production, increasing gas usage in domestic sectors, and promoting the growth of municipal gas markets, among other goals.

The possibility of fresh gas supplies is encouraging in the long run, according to Rizvi of Primary Vision Network.

According to his projections, new natural gas capacity of about 200 million tons is scheduled to be online during the next five years.

According to Rizvi, many developing and Asian nations would continue to rely on LNG as a means of ensuring their energy security during the energy transitions. What did he say?

Therefore, LNG isn’t going anywhere in my opinion. Staying in the picture is its intention.

Conclusion

Constraints on demand growth, brought on by stagnant supply and persistently low global economic activity, will keep natural gas prices in check.

Rising price threats are being exacerbated, meanwhile, by the intensification of conflicts in the Ukraine and the Middle East.

Several factors, including as geopolitical tensions, US natural gas output, and the role of fuel in helping countries shift to cleaner energy, contribute to the long-term mixed picture of the natural gas price trend.

FAQs

Is gasoline a good investment?

Fitch Solutions and ANZ Research projected gasoline demand to soften in 2023 due to expected slowing economic growth in developed countries. This could hit the price and lead to potential losses. On the other hand, based on the historical data, algorithm forecasting service Wallet Investor predicted that RBOB gasoline futures should be a very good investment for long-term.

Will gasoline price go up or down?

Nobody knows for certain. The gas prices are expected to fall in the medium term, according to the US EIA, Fitch Solutions and Trading Economics, as the global economy slows and inventories rise.

Do note, however, that analysts’ views and forecasts are not a substitute for your own research and due diligence.

What will the price of gasoline be in 2023?

The EIA forecast that the retail gasoline price would average $3.51/gal in 2023, down from $3.99/gal in 2022. Fitch Solutions predicted the gasoline price to stand at $2.70/gal in 2023, while Wallet Investor expected the fuel price to reach $2.793 by December 2023.

Will gasoline ever run out?

As gasoline is produced from crude oil and other petroleum liquids, its availability is directly linked to the supply of oil. In early 2021, Swiss-based energy company MET Group predicted global oil reserves to last another 51 years. Other sources suggest that the planet will run out of fossil fuels much sooner. Much will depend on how quickly countries transition to clean energy.

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